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The third week late playlist features a ton of intrigue, especially when it comes to the Rams that house the Buccaneers and the Dolphins that travel to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders.
Our betting experts have provided you with all the ways they can bet these matchups, with the dolphins being a favorite across the board – so don’t miss out!
NFL odds & tips
Watch our experts bet on Sunday’s early games.
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Stuckey: I played the Dolphins +4 mainly to sell the Raiders after successive victories over the Ravens and Steelers. When these two teams met in Las Vegas (without fans) last December, Miami closed as a 2.5-point favorite. Now are the dolphins +3.5? That’s too big a correction for this Raiders start, the fans in the stands and the relegation of Tua Tagovailoa to Jacoby Brissett, which I think is marginal.
In that December meeting, Ryan Fitzpatrick saved the day late (17 of 22 for 94 yards) with a points win for Miami, but Tagovailoa didn’t have much to do on the receiver as DeVante Parker was injured. In addition to having a healthy Parker, the Dolphins now have first-round pick Jaylen Waddle and tough Will Fuller, who will make his season debut on Sunday.
In terms of the buy-low nature of this game, teams that missed four or more touchdowns in their previous game – like the Dolphins, who lost 35-0 – have 115-71-6 (61.8. ) lost%, 19.1% ROI). I also envision the under in a lower score game, which makes the 3.5 point underdog even more attractive.
Dolphins vs. Raiders
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Raheem Palmer: The Dolphins have a 35-0 home loss to Josh Allen and the Bills. Although the Dolphins were ruled out against a Bills team that scored 122 points in the last three matches, the Dolphins had their chances last week and failed to score on three trips within the red zone.
Even so, in Week 3, the Dolphins will face the Raiders, who have won consecutive games against the Ravens and Steelers. While the Raiders have improved this season, I’m not sure they have improved enough to warrant that number. I’m not increasing the performance of this Raiders team after they beat the Steelers – who had problems offensively and dealt defensively with losses to TJ Watt, Devin Bush and Joe Haden. In addition, their win against the Ravens was mainly due to two fumbles from Lamar Jackson.
The elephant in the room is the absence of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who will miss Sunday’s game with broken ribs. Jacoby Brissett will step in and he is more than capable of keeping the dolphins afloat in Tagovailoa’s absence. It is also possible that given his arm strength, Brissett could be an upgrade for this team as opposed to a downgrade. Derek Carr also comes into this game with an ankle injury and faces a Dolphins defense that is still ranked 11th in efficiency and leads the league on quarterback hits (15).
The Raiders offensive line is broken and is 32nd in adjusted line yards and 16th in adjusted sack rate (5.5%) so Miami should be able to cause problems for this unit. According to our Bet Labs database, the teams that have lost 35 points or more since 2003 are 24-15-4 (61.5%) in their next matchup since 2003. Overall, I think this number is a bit high and I believe that the spread the loss overvalued by Tagovailoa. I play the dolphins.
Dolphins vs. Raiders
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Mike Randle: The Raiders return home after losing 26:17 in Pittsburgh to battle a Miami team who lost 35-0 to Buffalo. This 3.5 point spread will seem too low to the casual bettor, but we’re backing the visiting dolphins in a game that actually opened one point ahead of Miami.
The relegation of Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to Jacoby Brissett is minimal. This is still a Miami team that traveled to New England in Week 1 and scored a 17-16 win over a Patriots team with an elite defense. The Dolphins are still ranked 11th overall in the defensive Football Outsiders DVOA, even after that loss to Buffalo.
The Raiders’ defense has struggled to contain opposing running backs, a weakness the Dolphins should take advantage of. Baltimore has given the opposing running backs the eleventh highest fantasy points, which was especially clear against the Ravens in week 1. Baltimore averaged a sturdy 5.6 yards per carry and only lost the game due to costly late game turnovers. The Raiders won both games due to big passing games on offense, which will limit Miami. The Dolphins rank seventh in the Pass DVOA, which meant that Josh Allen was limited to only 179 yards last week.
Brissett is a skilled quarterback who can run an efficient offensive with minimal errors. The Dolphins’ defense is much better than most realize after last week’s breakaway and will keep this game close against an overrated Las Vegas team. I love getting the full 3.5 points in a game that Miami can absolutely win. I would put that line at 3, but I feel more comfortable with the field goal loss covered.
Buccaneers vs. Rams
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Raheem Palmer: I expect most of the crowd to play against the Buccaneers this week. They won 10 straight games (including the playoffs) last season, with Tom Brady throwing 31 touchdowns on just six interceptions in that time span.
That said, I still believe the Rams are the right place in this matchup as the odds makers opened them up as a one-point favorite before they went through zero and the Buccaneers became favorites. These two teams met last year and it was in many ways a blueprint for what we’re going to see this Sunday.
The Buccaneers have been the first in defensive running efficiency for the past two seasons and the teams have realized that there is no point running in this team. Last season the Rams ran early downs 51% of the time. In their matchup against the Bucs, they topped 77% of the time on early downs. It was a blueprint that the Cowboys and Falcons followed this season, which took place in weeks 1 and 1 respectively.
Opposing NFL offenses go against the Bucs in 77% of the cases and only call running plays 35 times this season. There is a clear way of beating this team and that is in the air. With Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, the Rams are well equipped to defeat this wacky secondary school. The Rams are runner-up in the EPA / Play drop-back (.489) and face a Buccaneers defense that ranks 21st in passing success rate. The Buccaneers are missing Sean Murphy-Bunting – who fails with a dislocated elbow – which doesn’t bode well against this productive Rams offensive. With Jason Pierre-Paul from the squad, we have to downgrade this defense a little.
The Buccaneers will get their offense, but this feels like a game where the wrong team is favored. I take the Rams here as a dog and happily add them to 6 point teasers.
Buccaneers vs. Rams
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Billy Ward: BetMGM continues to offer the same line for these props for every game regardless of the spread as I’ve described it here. This bet is a value whenever the spread is less than three or so, with the value increasing as the spread narrows.
I initially had some concerns about the high totals – more total points seem to result in teams scoring three times more often in a row. I went back to my database and found that games with at least 50 total points – and spreads less than 2.5 points – don’t have three even scores nearly 46% of the time. That’s good for nearly a 10% advantage based on the current line.
As far as I can tell, BetMGM is the only book that offers these props and they don’t shift the line. However, if you can find it elsewhere, I’d bet it at +150 (40% implied). This keeps us over a 5% lead, which is roughly what I need to be comfortable while playing.
