Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column featured in the editors and experts at Gold Derby Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race – Slack, of course. In a special midweek contribution, we question the possible winners of the New York Film Critics Circle on Friday at the beginning of December and with it a rush of critical awards.
Christopher Rosen: Hello Joyce! It’s been a great week for us. We’ve seen West Side Story, we’ve seen Nightmare Alley, the National Board of Review will announce its nominees on Thursday, and the New York Film Critics Circle will honor the best films and actors of the year on Friday. Critic groups aren’t always the most reliable precursors to the Oscars – FYC, winner of the New York Film Critics Circle for Best Supporting Actress Tiffany Haddish for “Girls Trip” – but I think there’s a chance the New York group might bring some longtime contenders back into the conversation. So let’s start with some actors who I think could make hay on Friday based solely on the anecdotal evidence I have from my friendship with some members of the group who have sworn to secrecy about their voices. Best actor is invited, but I can’t help but think Simon Rex is a serious threat to the NYFCC vote here. He rules “Red Rocket,” a firecracker indie movie with huge “Uncut Gems” vibes – and it would be great to have him back in the game for a long nomination. It just feels right, doesn’t it? Then there’s our buddy, Mr. Ben Affleck. Last year there was NYFCC Chadwick Boseman his Supporting Actor Award for “Da 5 Bloods” – which was a surprise as most expected Boseman to win with “Ma Rainey” to lead. But it usually helps to have multiple acclaimed appearances. Here is the NYFCC rulebook: “The ballot papers are meant to show performance in a single film. If several achievements are issued within the calendar year, the majority of the members present will decide on the recognition of one or more achievements. ”All this means that Affleck will have two really strong performances this year and if there is ever a group that will match his If work on The Last Duel is falling apart, it could be the NYFCC. But what do you mean, Joyce? Will there be chaos there and is this here? Kristen Stewart will win the first of many critical awards?
Joyceeng: I’ve said for a long time that Affleck is the perfect candidate for those “works” that multiple critics like to distribute when an actor has several projects in a year. NYFCC excellent Laura Dern Two years ago for “Marriage Story” and “Little Women” and as a supporting actor, they named it Matthew McConaughey, in the early stages of the McConaissance, for “Bernie” and “Magic Mike” nine years ago. Ben would be a similar type of win if they crowned him for “The Last Duel” and “The Tender Bar,” and you would love to see it. As for KStew, I feel like she’s too obvious a winner. In that sense, she is the Oscar frontrunner and the last three NYFCC Champions for Best Actress were a little further to the left of center: Regina Hall for “Support the girls”, Lupita Nyong’o for “us” and Sidney Flanigan for “never seldom sometimes always”. Nyong’o came closest to an Oscar nomination, which arguably wasn’t that close, given that she was competing with a horror film. I can see that it works Renate Reinsve for “The Worst Person in the World” or more high profile Oscar contenders but famous names like Penelope Cruz for “parallel mothers” or Olivia Colman for “The Prodigal Daughter”. I can even see Alana Haim for the Peak LA movie “Licorice Pizza” – so we don’t forget, NYFCC was the one who awarded best film to “La La Land”, not LAFCA. Last year NYFCC bestowed First Cow, which did not receive a single Oscar nomination. I don’t think this will happen again, but who knows what those crazy kids are going to do. I think “The Power of the Dog” is the safest prediction here.
SEE Oscar experts type: will the academy open its doors to “House of Gucci”?
Christopher Rosen: It’s true, the stars stand for “The Power of the Dog”, which is critically acclaimed and has the kind of glossy sheen of a critics group best picture winner. But I also see a spread-the-wealth scenario. Last year the New York critics gave up Chloe Zhao their award for the best director, but not for “Nomadland” itself. Jane Campion feels like a slam dunk winner for best director this year (if she lost on Friday I would be justifiably stunned), but maybe there is another movie that anticipates itself in the final bill. Something Sundance-like like “Summer of Soul” or “Flee”, or Cannes-like like “Titane” or “The Worst Person in the World” or even New York-y like “Shiva Baby” or … “West Side Story” “? It may not be that far-fetched. After all, American Hustle received the highest honors from the NYFCC in 2013, and while the electoral board has changed somewhat in the eight years since that surprising election, there is at least the possibility that a major mainstream release that is shown late could break in as a consensus vote. But before I go, I want to highlight one other best actor pick that I should keep a close eye on: Nicolas Cagewhose performance in “pig” has avid critics – particularly NYFCC members. I would be shocked if he left the critics’ groups in December without at least one great honor.
Joyceeng: The timeliness bias was pretty darn strong in this American Hustle win. Are you setting your flag for Nic to win one of the Big Three? That is definitely not impossible. He’s also a past winner, and it’s been a while since they had a repeat champion in that category (DDL won its fourth for “Lincoln”). And you’re right – they tend to spread the wealth, and lately it’s been hard for a movie to win more than two awards with them unless you’re “Carol” or Alfonso Cuaron DP’ing your own movie. So, yeah, we could have a BP / BD split here for a third year in a row. One thing you can probably bet on is that what wins best movie here is unlikely to win with our West Coast pals, as they have only met three times since 2010. #neverforget LA featured on “Small Ax” last year.
Make your predictions at the Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple / iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans as well as against our experts and editors for the best results for predictive accuracy. Check out our latest prediction champions. Can you top our prestigious leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated as they will affect our latest racetrack odds that are terrifying Hollywood bosses and stars. Don’t miss out on the fun. Speak your voice and share your offended opinions on our famous forums, where 5,000 showbiz executives lurk daily to follow the latest awards. Everyone wants to know: what do you think? Who do you predict and why?